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martinz
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Joined: 01 Oct 2007
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 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 3:11 am Post subject: Human can be so fragile |
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Human can be so fragile! What if this H5N1 virus could really mutate to a form which could be easily passed from human to human, triggering a pandemic and killing millions of people worldwide?
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Chinese man dies of H5N1 bird flu
A man in China's eastern province of Jiangsu has died from the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, state media says.
China's Xinhua news agency said the man, named only as Mr Lu, died after being admitted to hospital on 27 November with severe chills and fever.
It said he had no known contact with dead poultry, and no outbreaks of bird flu were reported nearby.
A total of 17 people have died in China from the H5N1 virus and millions of birds have been culled.
As a precaution, 69 people with close contacts to Mr Lu were put under medical observation, Xinhua said.
Since the H5N1 virus emerged in South East Asia in late 2003, it has claimed some 200 lives around the world. Indonesia has been hardest hit, with more than 90 deaths.
Scientists fear the virus could mutate to a form which could be easily passed from human to human, triggering a pandemic and potentially putting millions of lives at risk.
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snigna
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Joined: 07 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Well, humans are actually very strong! Just think how many little scars and... holes... we have in our body from which viruses and bacteria can get in so easily. And yet, we fall sick only once a couple of months. |
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wellingtonboots
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| Posted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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A new virius is always deadly to a certain extent but H5N1 actually has a low mortality rate compared to some other similar viruses but less deadly viruses tend to be more viralent because the longer a host lives with a virius the longer the time avalible for that virius to infect others. Most viriuses are not immediately deadly to young healthy people, not because our immune systems are very good but because the main aim of a virius to propagate itself. If its host dies quickly the virius can't infect others and continue to reproduce, so an idea virius would be able to propagate and survive in each individual for a long time whilst being very infectious.
Hosts like humans on the other hand must defend against disease which the immune system is well adapted for. However in the constant war between the infected and the infecting, humans do tend to loose out eventually and when a new strain appears there will be initial casualties. However many people are able to build up immunity to a new strain without becoming ill or some people are naturally immune due to individual genetic differences. Humans are well adapted to change with the times and when a new virius appears it is very unlikely that it will be able to wipe out the whole human population.
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spock
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| Posted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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There've been more pandemics in the past few thousand years, and it has never occurred that all people died  Probably we either find a cure or there are a lot of people going to die.
The first option will probably be more likely
And the fact we are now in fact the animals with the biggest population in the world, I guess the humans aren't that fragile.
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martinz
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Joined: 01 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 12:11 am Post subject: |
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Actually, there is quite a substantial amount of people died. In 1918, Spanish flu infected approximately 20 to 40 percent of the worldwide population causing the deaths of over 50 million people.
You are right, the humans are the largest population right now, but that does not mean that they are less fragile. On the contrary, viruses would view humans to be effective targets because of the large population. Using a simple analogy, there are more viruses in the Windows environment than Linux, because of the former OS large based user.
Another worrying trend is the AIDs pandemics. In recent decades, AIDs has led to the deaths of more than 25 million people since it was first recognized in 1981, making it one of the most destructive epidemics in recorded history. On top of that, the number of people infected with HIV is increasing exponentially.
The trend don't look good, and this should cause alot of people to worry.
| spock wrote: | There've been more pandemics in the past few thousand years, and it has never occurred that all people died Probably we either find a cure or there are a lot of people going to die.
The first option will probably be more likely
And the fact we are now in fact the animals with the biggest population in the world, I guess the humans aren't that fragile. |
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coralvalley
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Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2007 11:02 pm Post subject: |
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| It is scary when you really think about how many possible diseases are out there and with all of the viruses and bacteria that we come into contact with it is a wonder that we are able to do as well as we have. I will say that up until a few years ago I had never really heard of people dealing with a serious infection to the point where they had to go to IV clinics daily for months on end to get rid of an infection, but it is getting to that point. My sister had to go to one for ninety days after a cat bite because she had gotten so infected in her arm. When I was younger and you got bit sure it hurt, but usually you were fine after bleeding a little while. Now doctors are saying that things like cat bites are serious instances and you have to seek antibiotic treatment as soon as possible. I would imagine if something like this virus you mentioned could mutate and spread like it is suggested, then there would certainly be some kind of uproar about it. Sure, we are able to withstand a great many conditions, but with new viruses that go around, you never know what can truly happen I would imagine. |
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Xtreme $niper
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| Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2007 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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Humans are strong or weak depending on which perspective you look at it from.
In terms of diseases, we've come a long way. Thanks to our constantly changing bodies, we have become almost immune to many different diseases and viruses out there that perhaps hundreds of years ago would have been fatal to us. But this is for the same reason that you can't use the same pesticide on the same patch of land for too long, because the insects will just become immune to it and your efforts will be useless after a while.
In terms of everything else, we're pretty weak. If it wasn't for weapons we'd be certainly endangered species by now, with much more dominant animals out and about with built in tools of pain. Thanks to spears, knives, guns, etc, we have been able to fight off prey for long enough that now we rarely even have to worry about wild animals endangering us unless we're out camping in the woods.
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spock
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| Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:19 am Post subject: |
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| martinz wrote: | | You are right, the humans are the largest population right now, but that does not mean that they are less fragile. On the contrary, viruses would view humans to be effective targets because of the large population. |
True, you're completely right.
But I actually wanted to illustrate that it seems that we're not as fragile compared to other animals since we've proven that over a lot of years we became the biggest population, so it seems we are quit capable of handling diseases.
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Scar
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| Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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There are more of the other types of species than there are humans. Ants, roaches, and many other insects out number us by far. Possibly even birds and other things.
i think we'll be okay as long as no more viruses are "created".
I think its all a natural process. Even if something new broke up our bodies would eventually be able to deal with it and fight against it. Natural process.
I'm not too worried about it. If you think about how many people actually die from these types of things, and think about the population of the world, it's very rare. Nowadays the media just love to sensationalize and blow everything up to be something super big and crazy.
It's not like this is anything new. think about it. only new thing that came recently is aids, out of no where. i could be wrong, but i really do think that was a created disease to do something.
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agkamerer
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| Posted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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If anything, a deadly virus will only cause our bodies to develop antibodies, making us hardier. There's been some studies into the health of people descended from Black Plague survivors, for example; such people tend to have stronger immune systems than the average person.
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pharmer4
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Joined: 16 Aug 2005
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| Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:12 am Post subject: |
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wow
it amazes me how many people have made completely unsubstantiated statements here! so much for fact, it's all about common perception, whether that is correct or not!
firstly, perhaps people would like to know what h5n1 means - these are two different proteins found on the outside of the flu virus that immune systems in animals etc react against to create immunity.
You can have two different mutations of these, leading to new strains that cause either minor issues, or pandemics, or something in between. If you get a small mustation in one of the proteins mentioned, then they slip by some of your defences, but not all, and there is barely a sniffle from the population as a whole.
If you get major changes to these proteins (one or both), then the immune sytem cannot recognise them at all. If you combine this with a strain that is very good at replicating itself and then spreading itself, then you have the potential for a pandemic.
now, onto some weird statements from people in this thread.
FIrstly, Wellingtonboots - you post is great and succinct. No issues there!
| spock wrote: | There've been more pandemics in the past few thousand years, and it has never occurred that all people died Probably we either find a cure or there are a lot of people going to die.
The first option will probably be more likely
And the fact we are now in fact the animals with the biggest population in the world, I guess the humans aren't that fragile. |
Niether option is likely. There may be a cure or permanent vaccine for the flu, but unlikely, given the ability to mutate as stated above. And killing everyone off with the flu is statistically impossible, because there will always be peopole who's immune system copes anyway, even when exposed to a new virus.
And humans are no where near the most populated animals, not even the most populated mamals. where did that one come from???
| martinz wrote: | Another worrying trend is the AIDs pandemics. In recent decades, AIDs has led to the deaths of more than 25 million people since it was first recognized in 1981, making it one of the most destructive epidemics in recorded history. On top of that, the number of people infected with HIV is increasing exponentially.
The trend don't look good, and this should cause alot of people to worry. |
there have been multiple flu epidemics that killed more people in 6 months, than HIV has killed in the entire time that it has been recognised.
Similarly, small pox, measles, etc have all killed more people that HIV has.
And over the top of that, non-infective epidemics are much more serious, such as heart disease, lung disease, liver disease, etc, etc etc.
Also, I think you need to look up the word exponential in a dictionary. If the population of HIV infected people was increasing exponentially, it'd take about a year for the entire populatin of earth to be infected.
| Xtreme $niper wrote: | | In terms of diseases, we've come a long way. Thanks to our constantly changing bodies, we have become almost immune to many different diseases and viruses out there that perhaps hundreds of years ago would have been fatal to us. But this is for the same reason that you can't use the same pesticide on the same patch of land for too long, because the insects will just become immune to it and your efforts will be useless after a while. |
Human's don't have constantly changing bodies. It's not like evolution works that quickly. It's all to do with technology and knowledge. when people learn to wash their hands after defecating, rather than using those brown-stained fingers to handle their wildebeest drumstick, or cook their meat rather than eating semi-rotten fare, or change their clothes after operating on someone rather than wearing the blood of your patients as a medal of honour, then people seem to die less from disease!
Medication also helps, such as antibiotics and vaccines.
here is a quick lesson in natural selection. With many insults to the body (be it your body, or, say, the body of a locust who wants to eat your crop), some small population of your species will be naturally immune to a particular insult. Say, for instance, locusts being immune to the current pesticides. ANother example is bacteria being immune to all the antibiotics available. What happens is, you use the poison (be it the pesticide or antibiotic), and you kill off all the pests that are not immune, and all you are left with is those who ARE immune. Now you have a population made up mostly of those who laugh at your pitiful efforst to wipe them out, and their DNA become prominent - viola - you have immunity. This is not the same as humans not getting all the old diseases.
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pharmer4
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Joined: 16 Aug 2005
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Location: Deniliquin, Australia
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| Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:24 am Post subject: |
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sorry for two posts, but it was getting too big to keep my thoughts straight
| Scar wrote: | There are more of the other types of species than there are humans. Ants, roaches, and many other insects out number us by far. Possibly even birds and other things.
i think we'll be okay as long as no more viruses are "created".
I think its all a natural process. Even if something new broke up our bodies would eventually be able to deal with it and fight against it. Natural process.
I'm not too worried about it. If you think about how many people actually die from these types of things, and think about the population of the world, it's very rare. Nowadays the media just love to sensationalize and blow everything up to be something super big and crazy.
It's not like this is anything new. think about it. only new thing that came recently is aids, out of no where. i could be wrong, but i really do think that was a created disease to do something. |
why is it that conspiracies are always so improbable. The ability to create a virus is immensely difficult. They have been trying to use viruses to deliver DNA to people with simple mutation diseases (like Cystic Fibrosis) for years, and have had little luck. Not to mention when HIV came out, science did not exactly have the technology to even LOOK at viruses properly, let alone engineer them!!!
remember something about viruses - they mutate quicker than any other type of "living" thing (whether viruses live or not is a controversial topic) because they totally mix their DNA with the host, so they pick up new (99% of the time useless) code all the time. After millions of years, something like HIV comes out, you can blame evolution.
Also, if HIV was man-made, why did the perpetrators go to the trouble of making similar viruses for primates, cats, and other mammals? sadism?
| agkamerer wrote: | | If anything, a deadly virus will only cause our bodies to develop antibodies, making us hardier. There's been some studies into the health of people descended from Black Plague survivors, for example; such people tend to have stronger immune systems than the average person. |
this is probably a fair assumption to make when you have no understanding of the human immune system, but this is not the case.
This is like a similar statement i read recently that people who own dogs are less likely to have asthma, so therefore (the genius writing the article concluded), dogs must confer some sort of protection from asthma! wow, let's all get dogs for all our asthmatic frieds, and then watch as they die from the dander etc. People with asthma generally avoid dogs if it affects their asthma, so the reality is that asthmatics has a lower-than-normal population of dog owners. THey just obseved the inverse of this, which is that dog owners are most likely to be non-asthmatics.
the people who survived the black plague did not have their immune system supercharged by exposure to the black plague! they already had a strong immune system, which allowed them to live through the plage, and they passed this existing stong immune system on to their descendents.
If being exposed to the black plague could give you a super immune system that your descendents would inheret, then everyone would be receiving shots of the plague to benefit humanity in general. Yet this aint' happening. Funny that.
anyway, that should be a big enough rant for now.
anyone not understand my responses, please feel free to criticise me.
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LP-SolidRaven
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| Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:50 am Post subject: Re: Human can be so fragile |
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If it mutates into an extremely deadly form (something as deadly as Ebola) it wouldn't really get far. All the potential hosts would die too fast to spread it over a big distance.
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spock
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| Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| pharmer4 wrote: | | spock wrote: | There've been more pandemics in the past few thousand years, and it has never occurred that all people died Probably we either find a cure or there are a lot of people going to die.
The first option will probably be more likely |
Niether option is likely. There may be a cure or permanent vaccine for the flu, but unlikely, given the ability to mutate as stated above. And killing everyone off with the flu is statistically impossible, because there will always be peopole who's immune system copes anyway, even when exposed to a new virus. |
But I thought our immune systems had the ability to change quite fast? And next to that, we could basically create cures/vaccinations for the most common mutations of the virus.
| pharmer4 wrote: | | And humans are no where near the most populated animals, not even the most populated mamals. where did that one come from??? |
Is there really any other animal with a world population of more than 6 billion? Never knew that.
Still, I guess we still have a quite big population.
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Xtreme $niper
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| Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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| pharmer4 wrote: |
| Xtreme $niper wrote: | | In terms of diseases, we've come a long way. Thanks to our constantly changing bodies, we have become almost immune to many different diseases and viruses out there that perhaps hundreds of years ago would have been fatal to us. But this is for the same reason that you can't use the same pesticide on the same patch of land for too long, because the insects will just become immune to it and your efforts will be useless after a while. |
Human's don't have constantly changing bodies. It's not like evolution works that quickly. It's all to do with technology and knowledge. when people learn to wash their hands after defecating, rather than using those brown-stained fingers to handle their wildebeest drumstick, or cook their meat rather than eating semi-rotten fare, or change their clothes after operating on someone rather than wearing the blood of your patients as a medal of honour, then people seem to die less from disease! |
Way to take my words too literally. By constant I can mean over a long period of time, which was verified in my next sentence when I said "... that perhaps hundreds of years ago would have been fatal to us".
Obviously evolution doesn't work that quickly, but often times neither do the problems that our bodies develop a resistance to down the line. But I do agree that there are tons of people out there that are just doing stupid things seemingly to piss smart people off. They just tag along with the rest of the world (the small portion that actually does anything useful for society) and do stupid things such as drinking and driving, coughing/sneezing/picking their nose and then handling door knobs, hand rails, or other people's hands without washing their own first, etc....
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